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Prisons

With one of the highest incarceration rates for comparable societies, in March 2024, the prison population in England and Wales was 87,869, almost 6% higher than at the same time in 2020 at 82,990. The Ministry of Justice predicts further rises in the prison population by March 2027, ranging from 93,100 to 106,300 and far outstripping current capacity in the estate.

Violence and self-harm in prisons are on the rise in both male and female establishments. The rate of self-harm incidents are now the highest since government records began at 829 per 1,000 prisoners, equalling 70,875 reported incidents in the year ending December 2023. Rates for women are even worse at 5,624 per 1,000 prisoners. Assaults have also risen significantly. In the year ending December 2023, overall assaults were up 28% from the previous year at a rate of 315 per 1,000 prisoners. 

Sentencing

Whilst average custodial sentence lengths have seen a small rise in recent years (up to 20.9 months in 2023), there are a huge number of prisoners serving very short sentences. In 2023 56% custodial sentences handed down were for 12 months or less. It is well established through research that short sentences in our system can be damaging to rehabilitative efforts. Reoffending rates alone tell a compelling story here. Ministry of Justice data shows that in 56% of adults released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months reoffended within a year, compared to 21% of adults who had served sentences of 12 months or more.

Probation

The Probation Service is under significant pressure with over 238,765 people under supervision at the end of 2023. HM Inspector of Probation (HMIP) annual report 2022–23 found that almost all probation divisions it inspected required improvement across the main performance indicators. This is clearly having an impact on outcomes for people on probation as they end their time in custody and transition into the community. After studying the offender management in custody model (OMiC), the inspectorate found in their sample cases that one in ten people were released homeless, only 40% of people were released to settled accommodation, and 30% of cases reviewed saw people recalled to custody only nine months after release.

Resource

Workforce challenges in the prison and probation services are some of the most acute in public service. Whilst the probation service has recruited large numbers of new trainee officers since the service was reunified under the civil service, vacancy rates in 2023 averaged at 29% against the target staffing position. This is partly because retention is relatively poor in the service, with about a 7% resignation rate, about a third of whom had 5 years or more experience. And experience matters in this part of the service. To become a qualified probation officer takes 15 to 21 months with a significant amount of supervision and input from qualified colleagues. If both new-recruit rates and vacancies are high, this puts a real strain on the workforce – many of whom are dealing with a caseload of over 50 individuals at any one time. 

Despite a big push in recruitment across the sector since the Covid 19 pandemic, poor retention and inexperience seriously hinder effectiveness. In February 2024, a Criminal Justice Joint Inspection report noted highlighted these issues as the biggest challenge across the criminal justice system workforce:

“We have found some worrying levels of inexperience across the CJS and in some areas significant problems retaining staff… While we acknowledge the steps that have been taken to recruit new staff, we are concerned that the loss of experienced personnel offers limited opportunities for new starters to learn from seasoned colleagues. As a result, many find themselves navigating a high-pressure environment without adequate support and supervision to develop their skills.”